## Core concept 5.3

## Probability

5.3.1.1 Understand that some outcomes are equally likely, and some are not

5.3.1.2 Understand that the likelihood of events happening can be ordered on a scale from impossible to certain

5.3.1.3* Understand that the likelihood of outcomes can be determined by designing and carrying out a probability experiment

### 5.3.1.3 Understand that the likelihood of outcomes can be determined by designing and carrying out a probability experiment

●Recognise events in which outcomes are random.

●Understand that previous outcomes can be used to make predictions about behaviour over a large number of trials.

●Recognise when prior outcomes can be used to make predictions.

5.3.2.1 Systematically find all the possible outcomes for two events using a range of appropriate diagrams

5.3.2.2 Systematically identify all possible outcomes for more than two events using appropriate diagrams, e.g. lists

5.3.2.3 Find theoretical probabilities from sets of outcomes organised in a systematic way from a range of appropriate representations

5.3.3.1* Understand that probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event happening and that it can be assigned a numerical value

5.3.3.2 Calculate and use theoretical probabilities for single events

5.3.3.3 Understand that the probabilities of all possible outcomes sum to one

5.3.3.4 Calculate and use theoretical probabilities for combined events using a variety of appropriate representations, including Venn diagrams

### 5.3.3.1 Understand that probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event happening and that it can be assigned a numerical value

●Distinguish between events that have different likelihoods and start to explain numerically why one event is more likely than another.

●Understand that the probability of an event with only two equally likely outcomes is a half, and that each possible outcome will occur approximately half of the time.

●Use the theoretical probability of a particular outcome to predict an expected number of occurrences of that outcome in an experiment.

●Identify the numerical values of outcomes in different single events and use these values to order the outcomes according to their likelihood.