**Core concept 5.3**

**Probability**

5.3.1.1 Understand that some outcomes are equally likely, and some are not

5.3.1.2 Understand that the likelihood of events happening can be ordered on a scale from impossible to certain

**5.3.1.3* Understand that the likelihood of outcomes can be determined by designing and carrying out a probability experiment**

**5.3.1.3 Understand that the likelihood of outcomes can be determined by designing and carrying out a probability experiment**

**5.3.1.3 Understand that the likelihood of outcomes can be determined by designing and carrying out a probability experiment**

●Recognise events in which outcomes are random.

●Understand that previous outcomes can be used to make predictions about behaviour over a large number of trials.

●Recognise when prior outcomes can be used to make predictions.

5.3.2.1 Systematically find all the possible outcomes for two events using a range of appropriate diagrams

5.3.2.2 Systematically identify all possible outcomes for more than two events using appropriate diagrams, e.g. lists

5.3.2.3 Find theoretical probabilities from sets of outcomes organised in a systematic way from a range of appropriate representations

**5.3.3.1***** ****Understand that probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event happening and that it can be assigned a numerical value **

5.3.3.2 Calculate and use theoretical probabilities for single events

5.3.3.3 Understand that the probabilities of all possible outcomes sum to one

5.3.3.4 Calculate and use theoretical probabilities for combined events using a variety of appropriate representations, including Venn diagrams

**5.3.3.1 Understand that probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event happening and that it can be assigned a numerical value**

**5.3.3.1 Understand that probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event happening and that it can be assigned a numerical value**

●Distinguish between events that have different likelihoods and start to explain numerically why one event is more likely than another.

●Understand that the probability of an event with only two equally likely outcomes is a half, and that each possible outcome will occur approximately half of the time.

●Use the theoretical probability of a particular outcome to predict an expected number of occurrences of that outcome in an experiment.

●Identify the numerical values of outcomes in different single events and use these values to order the outcomes according to their likelihood.